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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."